SuperForex - Company News

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Positive economic data from Japan significantly impacted the rates. Seems like formation of the new upward trend.

The rates continue in the frames of the upward trend, but we can see on the chart formation of a weak downtrend. Formation of a new trend is based on the decreasing of oil prices and worsening of trade relations between the United States and Canada.
This week the Japanese yen continued to strengthen due to the positive data on the economy. The country's GDP unexpectedly grew in the 2nd quarter by 1%, while it was expected growth in just 0.6%. Such a growth is the most rapid growth in the Japan's economy since more than 2 years. we hadn't seen the same significant growth since the 1st quarter of 2015. In annual terms, GDP growth was +4%, exceeding forecasts in 1.5%. It should also be noted that Japan's GDP grew for the sixth quarter in a row. Consumer spending indicator increased by 0.9% in Q2, exceeding the expected level in almost 2 times. And the volume of industrial production in June rose by 2.2% amid expectations of 1.6%.

Thus, amid extremely positive statistics from Japan, it was very hard for canadian dollar to resist the yen. Strengthening of JPY would be even more rapid, but it was prevented by a factor of geopolitical tensions between the USA and North Korea, although the situation has been normalized to the usual level these week.

Today the market is waiting for information from Canada's index of consumer prices in July, but likely it's not necessary to expect for significant strengthening of the CAD, given that oil is decreasing again amid information about achieving of the maximum levels of shale oil extraction in the USA over the past 2 years. Crude oil stocks fell significantly this week, but the increase in oil production will lead to rapid recovery of oil reserves. In addition, analysts have lowered their forecasts about demand of oil in China. It should be noted that If China started a massive shift to electric transportation, in accordance with the global trend, it would negatively impact the demand for oil in this country in the future.

Oscillators MACD, Stochastics give contrary signals. In this situation, the most optimal would be to open the short deals upon medium term trading. For those who use short term strategies it's possible to open the deals to BUY, in accordance with Stochastics' signal making a profit on the price correction.

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An update on the Euro and the American dollar in light of recent events.

This week our gaze draws back to Europe. In our previous look at the euro we talked about how much it has strengthened this year, based on positive economic reports and favorable election outcomes. Let’s take a look at the situation in Europe now.

The euro has been the shining star of Forex trading this year, gaining a remarkable 11.5% on the USD so far in 2017. In recent weeks investors’ appetites towards the euro increased amid an expectation that the European Central Bank will change its monetary policy toward a less dovish approach that supports an even stronger euro. Some analysts have even suggested that we may see a parity between the EUR and the British pound in the coming months. However, ECB chief Mario Draghi has not given any real indication that he plans to cut the stimulus program anytime soon.

Now the euro is easing a little bit against the dollar as analysts prepare for the upcoming Jackson Hole conference on August 24-26, where Draghi will speak. The small drops in the price of the euro are likely a result of investors’ impatience regarding the ECB decision on monetary policy.

On Wednesday the euro dropped from its 2015 height level and went 2% down to 1.1691 USD and 1.13960 CHF.

Furthermore, the euro was able to gain on the dollar because of the political turmoil in the United States. Recent tensions with North Korea, as well as a neo-nazi attack both rattled the United States over the past two weeks. However, things seem to be cooling down with North Korea, and the US released some favorable data on retail sales (up by 0.6 in July) which helped the USD find a more solid ground. If the economy fares well and inflation increases, investors would again look to the dollar as an attractive trading instrument and expect the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates again.

However, economic data from the United States has fluctuated throughout 2017. Inflation and wage growth haven’t been at the expected levels, and the Federal Reserve has been extremely careful about adjusting its policies. This is why right now another rate hike is unlikely. Even if rates are increased in the coming months, analysts don’t expect multiple hikes, as was initially planned.